counter
calibrated
3–1
France vs Croatia
Scenario probability
65.7%
calibrated · ensemble · what-if
HedgeCoach samples a calibrated ensemble of plausible match futures — score-lines, tactical modes, and the probability of each. Not a single forecast. The full spread of what could happen, scored against the market.
Free: the top-3 scenarios for every fixture. Kickoff June 11, 2026.
How it works
A structured Boltzmann prior draws K diverse, plausible futures per fixture — distinct tactical modes, not noise around one guess.
Each ensemble is scored by Brier against closing-line probabilities, so the numbers you see are honest, not hopeful.
The diverse scenarios and their calibrated probabilities — plus counterfactual what-ifs for members.
Runs on a classical quantum-inspired sampler — no special hardware. HedgeCoach is scenario analytics — a calibrated view of uncertainty, not advice.